Midterm Surprise: Democrats Are Surging in Red America

About this episode

<p>A new set of polls from The New York Times finds that Democratic candidates are doing remarkably well in the Republican-leaning states that they need to win to gain control of the U.S. Senate in next month’s midterm elections.</p><p>They are doing less well in the blue states that, in theory, should be easier to win.</p><p>Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The Times, offers his idea of what is behind the numbers.</p><p>Guest: <strong>Nate Cohn</strong>, The New York Times’s chief political analyst.</p><p>Background reading:&nbsp;</p><ul><li>Polls suggested that Hispanic voters, whose support helped propel President Trump to the White House in 2024, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/22/upshot/hispanic-voters-midterm-elections.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">would largely support the Democratic Party this time</a>.</li><li>Senator Susan Collins of Maine <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/upshot/maine-poll-times-siena.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">led polls for the first time</a> since Graham Platner dropped out of the race in July.</li></ul><p>Photo: Ash Adams for The New York Times</p> <p><p>For more information on today’s episode, visit <a href="http://nytimes.com/thedaily?smid=pc-thedaily"><strong>nytimes.com/thedaily</strong></a>. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. </p><p> </p><p>Subscribe today at <a href="http://nytimes.com/podcasts">nytimes.com/podcasts</a> or on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Amazon Music. You can also subscribe via your favorite podcast app here <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/activate-access/audio?source=podcatcher">https://www.nytimes.com/activate-access/audio?source=podcatcher</a>. For more podcasts and narrated articles, download The New York Times app at nytimes.com/app.</p></p><br/> <p>Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See <a href="https://pcm.adswizz.com">pcm.adswizz.com</a> for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.</p>